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Tonight, the  will .  has already cleaned up at other awards ceremonies, earning prestigious
gongs for Benedict Cumberbatch, streaming service  and writer-director Jane Campion. Maybe Campion will follow ,
but the slow-burning Western faces fierce
competition from King Richard,  and — not to mention Steven Spielberg, Kenneth Branagh, Paul Thomas
Anderson and even a Marvel movie or two.Some
of 2022’s Academy Awards categories are too close to call and pleasingly
open to a shortlist of worthy potential winners.
Looking at previous awards usually shows clear favorites
to win, but there’s always room for surprises. Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley, Belfast and Licorice Pizza
are also among the films gaining multiple nominations, while Ryûsuke Hamaguchi is
also up for best director.The 2022 Oscars ceremony
will air live on ABC Sunday at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m.
ET). Here are my predictions — ultimately they’re subjective, but I’ve tempered my personal favorites with the results of other awards, perceived preferences of Academy
voters, and, of course, some good old-fashioned guesswork.
See if you agree with these Oscars 2022 predictions…Best pictureI’d love to see
inspiring stories King Richard or CODA win big, showing
the life-affirming power of cinema. A win for Dune or West Side
Story would be a reminder of the visual spectacle only available at movie theaters, which we’ve missed in recent years.
But the front-runner has to be The Power of the
Dog, the most nominated film of 2022 and a winner of
the top gong at the Baftas, Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes and many more.

This slow-burning Netflix western deserves the praise.

The Western is the quintessential American genre, and it’s fascinating to see this most venerable of big-screen genres refracted by a
New Zealand director, British star and an online streaming service to
create something so potent.BelfastCODADon’t
Look UpDrive My CarDuneKing RichardLicorice PizzaNightmare AlleyThe
Power of the DogWest Side StoryBest directingKenneth Branagh being recognized for a deeply personal retelling of his own life story would be an inspiring story.

But the smart money is on Power of the Dog director Jane
Campion, who already cleaned up at the Baftas, AACTAs, Golden Globes and more.
She’s the first woman to be nominated twice
for best director after The Piano in 1993 (which won her the best original
screenplay gong).   

Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)Jane Campion (The Power
of the Dog)Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)Ryûsuke
Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)Roger Frappier, Jane Campion, Kirsten Dunst,
and Jesse Plemons accept the best picture award for The Power of the Dog at the 2022 Critics
Choice Awards on March 13.
Frazer Harrison/Getty Images
Actor in a leading roleIs it just me or did you think
Benedict Cumberbatch and Will Smith had already won Oscars?
But a win this year would be their first, and either
deserves it for their towering performances in Power of the Dog and King Richard, respectively.
Andrew Garfield deserves kudos for his performances in both the heart-wrenching Tick, Tick… Boom!

and multiplex-conquering : No Way Home, demonstrating the range of cinema.

His Marvel castmate Cumberbatch will probably edge it,
although it’d be great to see Smith take the award in the same year that Black
Oscar pioneer  died.Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)Benedict
Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)Will
Smith (King Richard)Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of
Macbeth)Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis play the parents of tennis
legends Venus and Serena Williams in King Richard.
Warner Bros
Actress in a leading roleKristen Stewart’s snub at the Screen Actors Guild
makes her an outside bet, while the others have all won before — except Jessica Chastain, who scooped the SAG gong.
This one is wide open, but Chastain could well scoop the award
for her transformative turn as an outrageous televangelist.Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)Kristen Stewart (Spencer)Actor in a supporting roleKodi Smit-McPhee has been tipped to continue the Power of the Dog sweep, but who can resist the story of Troy Kotsur, the
first deaf male actor to win a Bafta, a SAG award
and a Critics’ Choice award.Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)Troy Kotsur (CODA)Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)J.K.
Simmons (Being the Ricardos)Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)Actress in a supporting roleAnother quality category, with
old favorites Judi Dench and Kirsten Dunst competing against excellent performances by Jessie Buckley and experienced actor Aunjanue
Ellis. But anyone who’s seen the updated West Side Story
will know why the all-singing, all-dancing Ariana DeBose is
winning award after award for lighting up the
screen as the emotional heart of the visually lavish musical.Jessie
Buckley (The Lost Daughter)Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)Judi Dench (Belfast)Kirsten Dunst (The Power
of the Dog)Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)Writing
(adapted screenplay)Dune writers Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve deserve recognition for their
sparse and enthralling distillation of Frank Herbert’s dense source novel.
Coda and The Lost Daughter pack an emotional punch,
but Campion is again a strong contender for the pulsing Power of the Dog story.CODA
(Sian Heder)Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe)Dune (Eric
Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve)The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)The Power of the
Dog (Jane Campion)Writing (original screenplay)If Branagh is shut out for directing,
the Academy may see the writing category as the place to honor his heartfelt personal
story of growing up in troubled Northern Ireland. However, Paul Thomas Anderson could take it.

Licorice Pizza isn’t the writer-director’s weightiest flick (and
has drawn ), but this could be one of those times the Academy bestows a sort of lifetime achievement
gong for someone who’s been nominated a bunch of times and never won.Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay
and David Sirota)Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)King Richard
(Zach Baylin)The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier)Animated feature filmWe
don’t talk about Bruno, but there’s a lot of talk about the cultural juggernaut that is Encanto.
‘s heartwarming family saga is the likely winner, although Flee is a deeply affecting story while Pixar’s , Netflix’s
and Disney’s are all gorgeous family flicks.Encanto
FleeLuca The Mitchells vs. the MachinesRaya and the Last DragonLet’s talk about
Encanto.
Disney
Costume designWest Side Story’s costumes provide a sumptuous
splash of color and life, but come on: Cruella
is set in the fashion industry and is a larger-than-life
slice of fabulousness.

Cruella (Jenny Beavan)Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini)Dune (Jacqueline West)Nightmare
Alley (Luis Sequeira)West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)Music (original score)Gotta be honest, I’m rooting for Hans Zimmer to win for Dune,
just because it’d surely be the first Academy Award to combine bagpipes and throat singing.Don’t Look Up
(Nicholas Britell)Dune (Hans Zimmer)Encanto (Germaine Franco)Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)The Power of the
Dog (Jonny Greenwood)SoundSilence is a crucial component of
The Power of the Dog, ironically. Honestly, I have no idea, but sound
is also a huge part of Dune’s technical achievement in conjuring
alien worlds and technology.BelfastDuneNo Time to DieThe Power of the DogWest Side
StoryProduction designAs much as I loved Dune, it’s all a bit brown, isn’t it?
West Side Story is a gloriously colorful re-creation of vintage New York where you feel
like you can reach out and touch the bricks of the neighbourhood buildings.
But The Tragedy of Macbeth is a real achievement, as designers Stefan Dechant
and Nancy Haigh transport you to a dreamlike space somewhere between cinema, theater and deepest nightmare.Dune (Zsuzsanna
Sipos and Patrice Vermette)Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell and Shane
Vieau)The Power of the Dog (Grant Major and Amber Richards)The Tragedy
of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh)West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo and Adam Stockhausen)CinematographyThis is where the visuals of Dune come into their own.
There’s something mesmerizing about the way Greig Fraser’s camera buzzes across the
desert with the squadrons of fluttering aircraft like a war movie
or haunts the palace of intrigue.Dune (Greig Fraser)Nightmare Alley
(Dan Lausten)The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)The Tragedy of
Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)Dune harnesses desert power.
Warner Bros
Documentary featureDocumentaries are often associated
with harrowing true stories, and films like Flee and Writing With Fire are powerful and thought provoking.
But Summer of Soul is a timely and revelatory blast of musical
delight.AscensionAtticaFleeSummer of SoulWriting With FireFilm editingIn Tick, Tick…
Boom!, Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum deliver suitably show-stopping editing that
cuts deftly between musical numbers and flashbacks to the real-life experiences that inspired each song.
King Richard also boasts impressive editing from Pamela Martin,
who breathes crackle and energy into sports movie tropes like training
montages and high-stakes matches. By contrast, Dune and The Power of the Dog have
relatively unobtrusive editing that build the rhythm of the movie and draw
out the performances. Call me a nerd, but now I want to
revisit each film just to study the editing. And my prediction?
It’ll be Dune, let’s face it.Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)Dune (Joe Walker)King Richard (Pamela Martin)The Power of
the Dog (Peter Sciberras)Tick, Tick… Boom!
(Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)International feature filmIt’s unlikely to win Best Picture, but Drive My Car richly deserves to take home an award.
Each of these excellent films is worth seeking out, obviously.Drive My Car (Japan)Flee (Denmark)The Hand of God (Italy)Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)The
Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Read more

Makeup and hairstylingA fun one, this, as Tammy
Faye, House of Gucci and Cruella all try to out do each other with their hairdos.
Big hair and wild make-up is the order of the day, but
if we had to pick one winner I’d go for The Eyes of Tammy Faye.The Eyes of Tammy
FayeHouse of GucciComing 2 AmericaCruellaDuneMusic (original song)Although Lin-Manuel Miranda is nominated, it’s not
for the song you might expect — Disney submitted Encanto’s song Dos Oruguitas for consideration before  became a
cultural sensation. It’ll probably be Billie Eilish for her languorous James
Bond theme, but let’s hope it’s Down to Joy, just because
it’d be great to see Van Morrison hit the stage.Be Alive — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
and Darius Scott (King Richard)Dos Oruguitas — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)Down to Joy — Van Morrison (Belfast)No Time to Die — Billie Eilish and Finneas
O’Connell (No Time to Die)Somehow You Do — Diane Warren (Four Good Days)Visual effectsA fun thing about a lot of these categories is they show the
range of possibility afforded by each discipline.
So for example, James Bond adventure No Time to Die is designed to
look like it’s entirely real and grounded.
But action scenes, like the eye-popping Aston Martin car
chase, involve a ton of visual effects that are all the more impressive for being invisible
to the casual viewer. At the other end of the scale, movies like Free Guy and Spider-Man conjure reality-defying fantasy worlds thrillingly removed from
our own. Dune has to be the front-runner — especially if Shang-Chi and Spider-Man split the Marvel vote
— but my personal favorite is Shang-Chi for the way the visual effects
entwine with real-world stunt work to conjure a succession of exhilarating fight scenes, each with their own character and
story.DuneFree GuyShang-Chi and the Legend of
the Ten RingsNo Time to DieSpider-Man: No Way Home

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